Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19
Aleta, Alberto; Martin-Corral, David; Pastore y Piontti, Ana; Ajelli, Marco; Litvinova, Maria; Chinazzi, Matteo; Dean, Natalie E.; Halloran, M. Elizabeth; Longini, Ira M., Jr.; Merler, Stefano; Pentland, Alex; Vespignani, Alessandro; Moro, Esteban; Moreno,
NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR
2020
VL / 4 - BP / 964 - EP / +
abstract
An agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission shows that testing, contact tracing and household quarantine could keep new COVID-19 waves under control while allowing the reopening of the economy with minimal social-distancing interventions. While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.
174th
Global
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1147 InfluRatio
AccesS level
Green published, Bronze, Green accepted
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Psychiatry/Psychology
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Neuroscience & Behavior
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Global
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17 Wikipedia
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1.8K Policy
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