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Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19

Aleta, A; Martin-Corral, D; Piontti, APY; Ajelli, M; Litvinova, M; Chinazzi, M; Dean, NE; Halloran, ME; Longini, IM; Merler, S; Pentland, A; Vespignani, A; Moro, E; Moreno, Y

NATURE HUMAN BEHAVIOUR
2020
VL / 4 - BP / 964 - EP / +
abstract
An agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission shows that testing, contact tracing and household quarantine could keep new COVID-19 waves under control while allowing the reopening of the economy with minimal social-distancing interventions. While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.
83rd Global

AccesS level

Green Published, Bronze

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PROYECTO FINANCIADO POR PLAN NACIONAL DE INVESTIGACIÓN AGENCIA ESTATAL DE INVESTIGACIÓN, MINISTERIO DE CIENCIA E INNOVACIÓN. PID2019-109127RB-I00