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Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind-wave climate projections

Morim, Joao; Hemer, Mark; Wang, Xiaolan L.; Cartwright, Nick; Trenham, Claire; Semedos, Alvaro; Young, Ian; Bricheno, Lucy; Camus, Paula; Casas-Prat, Merce; Erikson, LI; Mentaschi, Lorenzo; Mori, Nobuhito; Shimura, Tomoya; Timmermans, Ben; Aarnes, Ole; Bre

NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
2019
VL / 9 - BP / 711 - EP / +
abstract
Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5-15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5-15 degrees, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world's coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with similar to 40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to similar to 50% of the total associated uncertainty.

AccesS level

Green published, Green accepted

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