Past and future decline of tropical pelagic biodiversity
Yasuhara, Moriaki; Wei, Chih-Lin; Kucera, Michal; Costello, Mark J.; Tittensor, Derek P.; Kiessling, Wolfgang; Bonebrake, Timothy C.; Tabor, Clay R.; Feng, Ran; Baselga, Andres; Kretschmer, Kerstin; Kusumoto, Buntarou; Kubota, Yasuhiro
PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
2020
VL / 117 - BP / 12891 - EP / 12896
abstract
A major research question concerning global pelagic biodiversity remains unanswered: when did the apparent tropical biodiversity depression (i.e., bimodality of latitudinal diversity gradient [LDG]) begin? The bimodal LDG may be a consequence of recent ocean warming or of deep-time evolutionary speciation and extinction processes. Using rich fossil datasets of planktonic foraminifers, we show here that a unimodal (or only weakly bimodal) diversity gradient, with a plateau in the tropics, occurred during the last ice age and has since then developed into a bimodal gradient through species distribution shifts driven by postglacial ocean warming. The bimodal LDG likely emerged before the Anthropocene and industrialization, and perhaps ?15,000 y ago, indicating a strong environmental control of tropical diversity even before the start of anthropogenic warming. However, our model projec-tions suggest that future anthropogenic warming further dimin-ishes tropical pelagic diversity to a level not seen in millions of years.
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