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First among equals: The first place effect and political promotion in multi-member plurality elections

Dulay, Dean; Go, Laurence

JOURNAL OF PUBLIC ECONOMICS
2021
VL / 200 - BP / - EP /
abstract
We study the impact of rank-based decision-making in a multi-member plurality electoral system by examining the decisions of Philippine legislative councilors to run for and win higher office. By focusing on multi-member plurality elections, we identify the effect of rank amongst politicians that hold the same office and received a similar number of votes. To identify the causal effect of rank, we conduct a close-elections RD at the village, municipality, and province levels. Our main result is the first place effect: incumbent first placers are 5-9% (1-4%) more likely to run (win) in future elections than incumbent sec -ond placers. The first place effect is unique among rank effects: subsequent rank comparisons yield sub-stantially weaker or insignificant results. Further evidence suggests that a variety of potential mechanisms-party alignment, strategic voting, differential levels of media exposure or the better perfor-mance of first placers-do not seem to explain our results. These results improve our understanding of the variety of ways rank effects interact with electoral systems. (c) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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